Quantitative estimate of the Milankovitch-forced contribution to observed Quaternary climate change

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doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.02.014
Author(s): Wunsch, Carl
Author Affiliation(s): Primary:
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Cambridge, MA, United States
Volume Title: Quaternary Science Reviews
Source: Quaternary Science Reviews, 23(9-10), p.1001-1012. Publisher: Pergamon, Oxford, United Kingdom. ISSN: 0277-3791
Note: In English. 33 refs.; illus.
Summary: A number of records commonly described as showing control of climate change by Milankovitch insolation forcing are re-examined. The fraction of the record variance attributable to orbital changes never exceeds 20%. In no case, including a tuned core, do these forcing bands explain the overall behavior of the records. At zero order, all records are consistent with stochastic models of varying complexity with a small superimposed Milankovitch response, mainly in the obliquity band. Evidence cited to support the hypothesis that the 100 Ka glacial/interglacial cycles are controlled by the quasi-periodic insolation forcing is likely indistinguishable from chance, given the small sample size and near-integer ratios of 100 Ka to the precessional periods. At the least, the stochastic background "noise" is likely to be of importance.
Year of Publication: 2004
Research Program: DSDP Deep Sea Drilling Project
IPOD International Phase of Ocean Drilling
ODP Ocean Drilling Program
Key Words: 24 Surficial Geology, Quaternary Geology; Antarctica; Cenozoic; Climate change; Climate forcing; DSDP Site 607; Deep Sea Drilling Project; Glaciation; IPOD; Insolation; Leg 108; Leg 111; Leg 94; Milankovitch theory; ODP Site 659; ODP Site 677; Ocean Drilling Program; Orbital forcing; Paleoclimatology; Pleistocene; Quaternary; SPECMAP; Stochastic processes; Upper Pleistocene; Vostok Station
Coordinates: N011203 N011209 W0834413 W0834414
N180437 N183438 W0210134 W0210135
N410004 N410005 W0325726 W0325727
S782800 S782800 E1064800 E1064800
Record ID: 2005048964
Copyright Information: GeoRef, Copyright 2019 American Geosciences Institute. Reference includes data from CAPCAS, Elsevier Scientific Publishers, Amsterdam, Netherlands