A Bayesian approach to calibrating apatite fission track annealing models for laboratory and geological timescales

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doi: 10.1016/j.gca.2006.07.027
Author(s): Stephenson, John; Gallagher, Kerry; Holmes, Chris
Author Affiliation(s): Primary:
Imperial College, Department of Earth Science and Engineering, London, United Kingdom
Oxford University, United Kingdom
Volume Title: Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta
Source: Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 70(20), p.5183-5200. Publisher: Elsevier, New York, NY, International. ISSN: 0016-7037 CODEN: GCACAK
Note: In English. Includes appendices. 31 refs.; 1 table
Summary: We present a new approach for modeling annealing of fission tracks in apatite, aiming to address various problems with existing models. We cast the model in a fully Bayesian context, which allows us explicitly to deal with data and parameter uncertainties and correlations, and also to deal with the predictive uncertainties. We focus on a well-known annealing algorithm [Laslett, G. M., Green, P. F., Duddy, I. R., Gleadow. A. J. W., 1987. Thermal annealing of fission tracks in apatite. 2. A quantitative-analysis. Chem. Geol., 65 (1), 1-13], and build a hierachical Bayesian model to incorporate both laboratory and geological timescale data as direct constraints. Relative to the original model calibration, we find a better (in terms of likelihood) model conditioned just on the reported laboratory data. We then include the uncertainty on the temperatures recorded during the laboratory annealing experiments. We again find a better model, but the predictive uncertainty when extrapolated to geological timescales is increased due to the uncertainty on the laboratory temperatures. Finally, we explictly include a data set [Vrolijk, P., Donelick, R. A., Quenq, J., Cloos. M., 1992. Testing models of fission track annealing in apatite in a simple thermal setting: site 800, leg 129. In: Larson, R., Lancelet, Y. (Eds.), Proceedings of the Ocean Drilling Program, Scientific Results, Vol. 129, p. 169-176] which provides low-temperature geological timescale constraints for the model calibration. When combined with the laboratory data, we find a model which satisfies both the low-temperature and high-temperature geological timescale benchmarks, although the fit to the original laboratory data is degraded. However, when extrapolated to geological timescales, this combined model significantly reduces the well-known rapid recent cooling artifact found in many published thermal models for geological samples. Abstract Copyright (2006) Elsevier, B.V.
Year of Publication: 2006
Research Program: ODP Ocean Drilling Program
Key Words: 02 Geochemistry; 03 Geochronology; Annealing; Apatite; Bayesian analysis; Calibration; Experimental studies; Fission tracks; Fission-track dating; Geochemistry; Geochronology; High temperature; Laboratory studies; Leg 129; Mathematical methods; North Pacific; Northwest Pacific; ODP Site 800; Ocean Drilling Program; Pacific Ocean; Phosphates; Pigafetta Basin; Precambrian; Relative age; Statistical analysis; Temperature; West Pacific
Coordinates: N215522 N215523 E1521920 E1521919
Record ID: 2007096025
Copyright Information: GeoRef, Copyright 2019 American Geosciences Institute. Reference includes data from CAPCAS, Elsevier Scientific Publishers, Amsterdam, Netherlands