Uncertainty analysis of depth predictions from seismic reflection data using Bayesian statistics

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doi: 10.1093/gji/ggy093
Author(s): Michelioudakis, Dimitrios G.; Hobbs, Richard W.; Caiado, Camila C. S.
Author Affiliation(s): Primary:
University of Durham, Department of Earth Sciences, Durham, United Kingdom
Volume Title: Geophysical Journal International
Source: Geophysical Journal International, 213(3), p.2161-2176. Publisher: Oxford University Press on behalf of The Royal Astronomical Society, the Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft and the European Geophysical Society, International. ISSN: 0956-540X
Note: In English. 45 refs.; illus., incl. 2 tables, sketch maps
Summary: Estimating the depths of target horizons from seismic reflection data is an important task in exploration geophysics. To constrain these depths we need a reliable and accurate velocity model. Here, we build an optimum 2-D seismic reflection data processing flow focused on pre-stack deghosting filters and velocity model building and apply Bayesian methods, including Gaussian process emulation and Bayesian History Matching, to estimate the uncertainties of the depths of key horizons near the Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) borehole 258 (DSDP-258) located in the Mentelle Basin, southwest of Australia, and compare the results with the drilled core from that well. Following this strategy, the tie between the modelled and observed depths from DSDP-258 core was in accordance with the ±2σ posterior credibility intervals and predictions for depths to key horizons were made for the two new drill sites, adjacent to the existing borehole of the area. The probabilistic analysis allowed us to generate multiple realizations of pre-stack depth migrated images, these can be directly used to better constrain interpretation and identify potential risk at drill sites. The method will be applied to constrain the drilling targets for the upcoming International Ocean Discovery Program, leg 369.
Year of Publication: 2018
Research Program: DSDP Deep Sea Drilling Project
IODP2 International Ocean Discovery Program
Key Words: 19 Geophysics, Seismology; Australasia; Australia; Bayesian analysis; Computer programs; Cores; DSDP Site 258; Data processing; Deep Sea Drilling Project; Depth; Expedition 369; Exploration; Imagery; Indian Ocean; International Ocean Discovery Program; Leg 26; Mathematical methods; Mathematical models; Mentelle Basin; Naturaliste Plateau; Numerical analysis; Numerical models; Prediction; Probability; Reconstruction; Seismicity; Simulation; Statistical analysis; Two-dimensional models; Uncertainty
Coordinates: S334742 S334741 E1122826 E1122825
Record ID: 2018088711
Copyright Information: GeoRef, Copyright 2018 American Geosciences Institute.